I haven't read many Japanese novels, simply because it takes long for me to read them. Manga and anime replace them easily :-p
Every year when the Nobel Prize winner announcements are due, many Japanese readers think of Haruki Murakami as a possible candidate. His books are great to read, but my gut feeling is that they are not so close to other Nobel prize winning material.
But his overall work might deserve it. With Bob Dylan's prize, it was the overall work that won. So, it might happen some day.